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Managing Climate Change Risk in Retirement

Forecasters warn of a humdinger hurricane season; smart planning and preparation can go a long way to keeping you safe

By Craig Miller

This year's Atlantic hurricane season started off quietly in early June and thus far, none has managed to make landfall on the mainland U.S. Forecasters say, don't get used to it.

Two people standing outside of their home. Next Avenue, climate change, retirement
George and Marcela Jones outside their Winter Haven home, which George holds up as a model of resilience  |  Credit: George Jones

"This season is looking to be an extraordinary one," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad told reporters in a pre-season briefing.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expecting 17 to 25 tropical storms big enough to get name tags, with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher), with 4 to 7 ramping up to major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). One has already revved up to a Category 5 and ravaged the southern Caribbean.

The Recipe for Trouble

Contributing to the grim outlook are a convergence of Atlantic Ocean temperatures in record-warm territory coupled with lighter trade winds and emerging conditions in the Pacific known as La Niña, all of which tend to feed the formation of tropical storms.

"All the ingredients are in place to have an active season," warns Ken Graham, head of the National Weather Service, possibly understating the case.

The 2020 hurricane season currently holds the record for most named storms with 30. NOAA draws from a predetermined rotating list of storm names. In 2020 they exhausted the list for that year and began assigning names from the Greek alphabet. That season started in mid-May (June 1 is the official start) and didn't blow itself out until November. When you start seeing names like "Hurricane Alpha," you know it's been a long haul.

Hide from Wind, Run from Water

Hurricane intensity is still rated by the force of its winds but wind isn't the biggest danger — water is. The Federal Emergency Management Agency says water is responsible for 90% of hurricane-related fatalities, whether from flooding from coastal storm surge or heavy rain. Half of the deaths attributable to drowning and other water impacts involve people trapped in their cars.

Indirect dangers lurk as well. In 2020, Hurricane Laura pummeled the Louisiana coast with an 18-foot storm surge, but more people died from accidents involving emergency generators than from direct impacts of the storm.

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Hurricane activity tends to peak from mid-August through October  |  Credit: NOAA

One of the hallmarks of hurricanes in the age of climate chaos is the extreme precipitation they can pack, especially when they "stall" over coastal areas. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey dumped up to 60 inches of rain on some parts of metropolitan Houston even as the storm was weakening.

Not Your Father's 'Cane

These "rain bombs" are supercharged by record-warm ocean temperatures fueled by the burning of fossil fuels. Harvey inundated about 300,000 vehicles and flooded as many as a half-million homes. Graham says inland rain is now causing more fatalities than occur where these storms make landfall.

Scientists have also noticed that hurricanes are spinning up in intensity faster. The season's first major hurricane, Beryl, powered up from a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph to a Category 4 hurricane packing winds of 130 mph in just one day, something that's never been recorded this early in the season.

In one startling example in 2023, Hurricane Otis amped up from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in one day, providing little chance to prepare for its landfall near Acapulco, Mexico. "These storms – they don't care about our timelines," warns Graham. "Preparedness is absolutely everything."

Don't Be a Delay-ney

The dramatic TV series "Apples Don't Fall" provides a master class in how not to live in Hurricane Alley. Pillars of society in West Palm Beach, Florida, the affluent Delaneys are also a dysfunctional family of tennis buffs. About midway through their travails (currently streaming on Peacock), West Palm is ravaged by a hurricane. Preoccupied with their personal dramas, the Delaneys blithely ignore the storm raging outside (clearly visible as there are no hurricane shutters).

When the power finally goes out, Dad (Sam Neill) announces he's going "out to the shed to look for flashlights." Of course, the batteries are dead, so they end up burning precious cellphone batteries to use their phones as flashlights. While Floridians can be fatalistic about hurricanes, this is hardly what FEMA would call preparedness.

Do Be a George

Growing up, economist George Jones, 75, spent nine months of the year in central Florida and vividly remembers his first hurricane, Donna, in 1960, which damaged more than 5,000 homes on the Florida mainland. Jones says he, "learned something at age 10 about weather and hurricanes that day" when the eye roared directly over his family home.

So when Jones and his wife, Marcela, retired to Winter Haven, Florida, from Illinois in 2016, they knew what they were getting into and "made a well-informed decision to minimize risks." They drew up a seven-point approach to managing hurricane risk, which he summarizes as:

1. Locate inland.

2. Find a well-built newer house (built to comply with building codes adopted after 2001), to weather hurricane-force winds (up to 160 mph).

3. Have an underground electric utility system in the neighborhood to withstand high winds.

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4. Keep an emergency generator, well maintained and well fueled.

5. Consider property with a homeowners' association (which will take the lead on cleanup) and preferably on a lake (limits flying debris).

6. Have backup communications, including an old-school TV antenna, NOAA weather radio, smartphone weather apps and perhaps even an affordable satellite phone in case the local cell towers are down.

7. Live within a one-hour drive of a major airport, in case "things go really south" and you have adequate loss-of-use coverage to fund temporary living quarters.

"Preparedness is absolutely everything."

"We still have very high wind risks from hurricanes about once every two to five years," says Jones, "but we can handle that risk being inland and not have a risk of our home being washed away in a hurricane tidal surge."

Jones, who describes himself as "risk-averse," says his Winter Haven home is outfitted with, among other armor, a roof rated for 160 mph winds, and "hurricane-rated" windows, also known as impact windows.

While impact windows are about double the cost of conventional glass, "You could get regular windows and get hurricane shutters, and the combined cost is the same as buying impact windows," says Henry Furr, principal architect of HHF Architecture and Development in Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

You Can't Plead Ignorance

Many upscale homeowners are opting for impact windows over the less esthetically pleasing built-in hurricane shutters. "It is exactly the same technology that they created for bulletproof glass," Furr explains. "They're rated to take a two-by-four flying through the air at 55 miles an hour, hitting it two or three times." Many building codes now require impact glass for new construction.

FEMA's deputy administrator, Erik Hooks, says his strongest message is, "Take time to make sure that you have a clear understanding of your unique risk," paying close attention to things like medications that require refrigeration, medical devices that need electricity or any mobility issues that might complicate an evacuation. Resilience, he says, is about "anticipating risk."

Or as George Jones likes to put it, "be prepared and have a backup for the backup."

Be Aware and Be Prepared


The Internet is awash with resources from the government and the private sector to help you prepare for the next big storm. A quick search will turn up several sources.

  • NOAA's National Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Tracker website that shows how every tropical disturbance in the North Atlantic is shaping up, with the likelihood of a hurricane threatening the U.S.
  • If you're house-hunting, the real estate website Redfin offers a thumbnail risk assessment of every home listed there; it assigns numerical ratings to five different climate risks, including flood, fire, heat, wind and air quality. You have to scroll down pretty far to find it but it's there.
Photograph of Craig Miller
Craig Miller is a veteran journalist based in the northern Catskills of New York. His reporting is focused on climate science and policy, energy and the environment. In 2008 Miller launched and edited the award-winning Climate Watch multimedia initiative for KQED in San Francisco, where he remained a science editor until August of 2019. He’s also a proud member of his local volunteer fire department.
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